PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStade Louis IIFull-time recap

Monaco

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2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonacoMarseille
Shots7 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.17 xG/match2.11 xG/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners0 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Quinten Timber · Marseille · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedQuinten Timber · Marseille · 72′ · 0.01 xG · on targetBenjamin Pavard · Marseille · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Coulibaly · Monaco · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedQuinten Timber · Marseille · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 62′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDenis Zakaria · Monaco · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFolarin Balogun · Monaco · 74′ · 0.07 xG · goalTimothy Weah · Marseille · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 66′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 67′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 4′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFacundo Medina · Marseille · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 10′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · Monaco · 13′ · 0.15 xG · on targetSimon Adingra · Monaco · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedHamed Junior Traorè · Marseille · 11′ · 0.23 xG · on targetIgor Paixão · Marseille · 36′ · 0.26 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′ · 0.29 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 85′ · 0.57 xG · goalAleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 59′ · 0.61 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monaco: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.19 xG. Marseille: 19 shots, 9 on target, 2.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Aleksandr Golovin · Monaco · 59′Folarin Balogun · Monaco · 74′Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monaco 1.19 xG · Marseille 2.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.96 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.96 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match▲ShotsMonaco · Marseille14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonacoMarseilleBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monaco
0Draws
1Marseille
Marseille — Monaco · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Monaco favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 9 · 5 too close

1.75 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.96 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.32 goals/match
1.91 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.2 xG/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/30.82 xG/match
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲14.4 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲10.2 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲5.54 shots/match
4.39 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲4.07 shots/match
52.3%Possessionseason · 28/2857.3%
4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/285.11 corners/match
4.57 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲3.43 corners/match
2.58 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/25▲2.44 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2812.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲29%
79%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2879%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monaco63.9
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monaco63.9
Marseille89.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monaco34.3
Marseille62
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monaco30.6
Marseille63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monaco82
Marseille70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monaco47.2
Marseille63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monaco56.2
Marseille72.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
1.91 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.2 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
49.4%Possession5/553.6%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/2—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
1.91 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.2 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
49.7%Possession10/1052.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.38 cards/matchCards8/72.86 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches
1.75 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.96 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.32 goals/match
1.91 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.2 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots28/28▲14.4 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲5.54 shots/match
52.3%Possession28/2857.3%
4.54 corners/matchCorners28/285.11 corners/match
2.58 cards/matchCards26/252.44 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 14 matches
2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored15/141.5 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141.43 goals/match
—Expected goals2/1—
12.3 shots/matchShots15/14▲14.5 shots/match
4.53 shots/matchShots on target15/14▲5.29 shots/match
53.6%Possession15/1456.3%
4.53 corners/matchCorners15/144.71 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards13/132.69 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1412 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonacoMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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