Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade du MoustoirFull-time recap

Lorient

DDDWL

1–1Full-time recap

Paris FC

DWDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lorient	Paris FC
Shots	10 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.18 xG/match▲	0.89 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	5 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lorient: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.15 xG. Paris FC: 7 shots, 5 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 1.15 xG · Paris FC 1.07 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lorient's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.4 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lorient's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.4 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lorient

0Draws

1Paris FC

4 Feb 2026Lorient — Paris FC · Coupe de France2–0

3 Oct 2025Paris FC — Lorient · Ligue 12–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 1 · 10 too close

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/281.18 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/281.57 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.11 xG/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.22 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/2811.3 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2812.4 shots/match

3.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/283.64 shots/match

3.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/284 shots/match

45.6%Possessionseason · 28/2851.7%

3.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/284.43 corners/match

5.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/285.39 corners/match

1.76 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/262.27 cards/match

9.64 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2810.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲25%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2871%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient30.6

Paris FC58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient44.4

Paris FC37.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient60.2

Paris FC41.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient58.3

Paris FC19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3

Paris FC40.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient8.3

Paris FC38.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient24.3

Paris FC33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.11 xG/match

9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match

46.8%Possession5/542%

2.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

—Cards2/32.67 cards/match

9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.11 xG/match

9.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲10.2 shots/match

3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.8 shots/match

50%Possession10/1047.9%

3.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

1.29 cards/matchCards7/82.63 cards/match

8.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

28 / 28 matches

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored28/281.18 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.57 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲1.11 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots28/2811.3 shots/match

3.79 shots/matchShots on target28/283.64 shots/match

45.6%Possession28/2851.7%

3.29 corners/matchCorners28/284.43 corners/match

1.76 cards/matchCards25/262.27 cards/match

9.64 fouls/matchFouls28/2810.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

14 / 15 matches

1.93 goals/match▲Goals scored14/151 goals/match

1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲1.33 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

11.9 shots/match▲Shots14/159.4 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/153.33 shots/match

45.5%Possession14/1548.7%

2.86 corners/matchCorners14/153.2 corners/match

1.92 cards/matchCards12/132 cards/match

9.86 fouls/matchFouls14/1510.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Apr 2026, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Paris FC have a visible away split

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match