Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

DDLWD

0–0Full-time recap

Nantes

WLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Auxerre	Nantes
Shots	5 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.66 xG/match	1.44 xG/match▲
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	3 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	20 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Auxerre: 5 shots, 0 on target, 0.65 xG. Nantes: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 0.65 xG · Nantes 1.46 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.86 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Auxerre

0Draws

1Nantes

30 Aug 2025Nantes — Auxerre · Ligue 11–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nantes in 3 · 6 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/28▲0.86 goals/match

1.28 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/281.61 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/31.19 xG/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/31.71 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/2810.4 shots/match

12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2813.7 shots/match

3.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/283 shots/match

4.62 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/284.79 shots/match

44.2%Possessionseason · 29/2842.8%

4.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/283.11 corners/match

4.55 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/285.68 corners/match

2.42 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲2.04 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2812.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2821%

45%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/28▲57%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre25

Nantes13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre12

Nantes10.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre47.2

Nantes17.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre47.2

Nantes52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre88.9

Nantes50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre58.3

Nantes2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre45.8

Nantes19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match

0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals4/3▲1.19 xG/match

9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲9.8 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match

42.8%Possession5/538.4%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match

—Cards2/31.33 cards/match

15.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals4/3▲1.19 xG/match

10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.4 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.2 shots/match

44.4%Possession10/1042.7%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards7/82.63 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

29 / 28 matches

0.79 goals/matchGoals scored29/28▲0.86 goals/match

1.28 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/281.61 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals4/3▲1.19 xG/match

10.5 shots/matchShots29/2810.4 shots/match

3.17 shots/match▲Shots on target29/283 shots/match

44.2%Possession29/2842.8%

4.83 corners/matchCorners29/283.11 corners/match

2.42 cards/matchCards26/262.04 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls29/2812.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 14 matches

0.87 goals/match▲Goals scored15/140.71 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141.36 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

10.9 shots/match▲Shots15/149.29 shots/match

3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target15/142.71 shots/match

42.4%Possession15/1441.6%

5.27 corners/matchCorners15/142.93 corners/match

2.36 cards/matchCards14/132.23 cards/match

13.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1412.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.07 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.07 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples29 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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