PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeParc Olympique LyonnaisFull-time recap

Lyon

WWLWW
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLyonToulouse
Shots13 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession69%31%
Corners8 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lyon's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Lyon's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lyon have a visible home split

weak

Lyon's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lyon's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lyon's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lyon have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.7%▲PossessionLyon · Toulouse40.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLyonToulouseBaseline
Possession55.7%40.1%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lyon favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 1 · 7 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲1.57 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/712.3 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/713.3 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74 shots/match
3.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/73.29 shots/match
55.7%Possessionseason · 7/740.1%
6.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/74 corners/match
5.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/76.71 corners/match
2.14 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 7/72.86 cards/match
16.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/714.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
71%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/729%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lyon75
Toulouse8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lyon48.2
Toulouse54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lyon70.4
Toulouse46.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lyon25
Toulouse86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lyon69.5
Toulouse87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lyon77.8
Toulouse22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lyon70.2
Toulouse52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
58.4%Possession5/538.2%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots7/712.3 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
55.7%Possession7/740.1%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls7/714.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots7/712.3 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match
55.7%Possession7/740.1%
6.29 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls7/714.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots4/411.5 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43 shots/match
61.8%Possession4/441%
7 corners/matchCorners4/44.75 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/44.25 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls4/415 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.83 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLyonToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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