PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeStade Pierre-MauroyFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLilleToulouse
Shots20 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners7 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ayyoub Bouaddi · Lille · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 17′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomain Perraud · Lille · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.02 xG · on targetWaren Kamanzi · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Ngoy · Lille · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 50′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 82′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRomain Perraud · Lille · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 38′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNathan Ngoy · Lille · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMario Sauer · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 32′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatías Fernández-Pardo · Lille · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 47′ · 0.09 xG · on targetHamza Igamane · Lille · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 74′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Lille · 32′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedEthan Mbappé · Lille · 90′ · 0.15 xG · goalAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedDayann Methalie · Toulouse · 75′ · 0.18 xG · on targetNgal'ayel Mukau · Lille · 45′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 50′ · 0.40 xG · goalNabil Bentaleb · Lille · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 20 shots, 5 on target, 2.29 xG. Toulouse: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.90 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Nabil Bentaleb · Lille · 90′Ethan Mbappé · Lille · 90′Frank Magri · Toulouse · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 2.29 xG · Toulouse 0.90 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Lille have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17 shots/match▲ShotsLille · Toulouse9.75 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleToulouseBaseline
Shots17 shots/match9.75 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against9.75 shots/match15.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.3%▲PossessionLille · Toulouse36%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLilleToulouseBaseline
Possession58.3%36%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Toulouse in 0 · 14 too close

3.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/42 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/49.75 shots/match
9.75 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/415.5 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/43.75 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/44.25 shots/match
58.3%Possessionseason · 4/436%
6.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/44.5 corners/match
3.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/48 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.25 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/411 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille80.6
Toulouse8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille95.4
Toulouse40.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille71.3
Toulouse29.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille86.1
Toulouse75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille55.5
Toulouse50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille69.4
Toulouse38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille80.5
Toulouse31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
3.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots4/49.75 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.75 shots/match
58.3%Possession4/436%
6.25 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
3.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots4/49.75 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.75 shots/match
58.3%Possession4/436%
6.25 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
3.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots4/49.75 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.75 shots/match
58.3%Possession4/436%
6.25 corners/matchCorners4/44.5 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Sept 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLilleToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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