PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeStade Jean BouinFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParis FCMetz
Shots24 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners14 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWillem Geubbels · Paris FC · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Paris FC · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGiorgi Abuashvili · Metz · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathieu Cafaro · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIdrissa Gueye · Metz · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Paris FC · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 16′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOtávio · Paris FC · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNouha Dicko · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIdrissa Gueye · Metz · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Stambouli · Metz · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 28′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMoustapha Mbow · Paris FC · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdama Camara · Paris FC · 59′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSadibou Sané · Metz · 22′ · 0.10 xG · goalAdama Camara · Paris FC · 16′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMaxime López · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetThibault De Smet · Paris FC · 50′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGeorgiy Tsitaishvili · Metz · 25′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSamir Chergui · Paris FC · 57′ · 0.20 xG · on targetMorgan Bokele Mputu · Metz · 66′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Paris FC · 67′ · 0.23 xG · goalJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 84′ · 0.36 xG · on targetBoubacar Traoré · Metz · 54′ · 0.44 xG · goalIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 52′ · 0.48 xG · goalJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 10′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Paris FC: 24 shots, 9 on target, 3.29 xG. Metz: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 45′Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 52′Moses Simon · Paris FC · 67′Sadibou Sané · Metz · 22′Boubacar Traoré · Metz · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Paris FC 3.29 xG · Metz 1.83 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Paris FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsParis FC · Metz9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis FCMetzBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match9 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match15.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Paris FC have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.7%▲PossessionParis FC · Metz44.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis FCMetzBaseline
Possession52.7%44.7%50.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Paris FC favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 0 · 14 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/30.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/39 shots/match
11 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/315.3 shots/match
6.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/31.33 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/37 shots/match
52.7%Possessionseason · 3/344.7%
7.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/34 corners/match
4.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/37 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/32 cards/match
8.67 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/313 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris FC58.3
Metz30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris FC81.5
Metz11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris FC46.3
Metz14.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris FC80.6
Metz13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris FC9.7
Metz68
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris FC86.1
Metz36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris FC70.1
Metz31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲2.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots3/39 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match
52.7%Possession3/344.7%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls3/313 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲2.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots3/39 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match
52.7%Possession3/344.7%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls3/313 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
2.67 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲2.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots3/39 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31.33 shots/match
52.7%Possession3/344.7%
7.67 corners/matchCorners3/34 corners/match
0.67 cards/matchCards3/32 cards/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls3/313 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1 / 2 matches
—Goals scored1/2—
—Goals allowed1/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots1/2—
—Shots on target1/2—
—Possession1/2—
—Corners1/2—
—Cards1/2—
—Fouls1/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.84 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParis FCMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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