Premier League · 2025Sat, 2 May 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap

Newcastle

WLLLL

3–1Full-time recap

Brighton

WWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Newcastle	Brighton
Shots	12 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.99 xG/match▲	1.64 xG/match
Possession	33%	67%
Corners	2 corners/match	10 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.4 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle

0Draws

1Brighton

18 Oct 2025Brighton — Newcastle · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 5 · 8 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/351.4 goals/match

1.46 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.2 goals/match

1.56 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.75 xG/match

1.92 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲1.23 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/3512.8 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/3512 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/354.57 shots/match

4.23 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/35▲3.94 shots/match

52.4%Possessionseason · 35/3553.3%

6.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/354.86 corners/match

5.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/354.91 corners/match

1.86 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 29/292.48 cards/match

9.94 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3512.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲26%

77%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle62.5

Brighton72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle67.5

Brighton65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle44.2

Brighton71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle52.5

Brighton42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle30

Brighton90

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 91%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle87.5

Brighton47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle61.9

Brighton69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.78 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.4 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match

51.6%Possession5/555.2%

3.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

1.56 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.75 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots10/1012.4 shots/match

4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

49.4%Possession10/1054.1%

4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards4/43 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

35 / 35 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored35/351.4 goals/match

1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲1.2 goals/match

1.56 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.75 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots35/3512.8 shots/match

4.57 shots/matchShots on target35/354.57 shots/match

52.4%Possession35/3553.3%

6.06 corners/matchCorners35/354.86 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards29/292.48 cards/match

9.94 fouls/matchFouls35/3512.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

18 / 18 matches

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.22 goals/match

1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.39 goals/match

1.97 xG/match▲Expected goals3/41.5 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.9 shots/match

5.39 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.11 shots/match

51.7%Possession18/1852.4%

6.61 corners/matchCorners18/184.61 corners/match

1.73 cards/matchCards15/143.21 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.8 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match

Match statistics

What the record shows

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match