PitchMath
Premier League · 2025St. James' Park

Newcastle United 3–1 Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Newcastle United won 3–1.

Shots
1213
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.991.64
Possession
33%67%

Full time

What the match recorded

Newcastle beat Brighton 3–1. Recorded in this match (Newcastle – Brighton): shots 12–13, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.99–1.64, possession 33%–67%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots13 shotsNewcastle United 12 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsNewcastle United 5 shots, Brighton & Hove Albion 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.99 xG1.64 xGNewcastle United 2.99 xG, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.64 xG
  • Possession33%67%Newcastle United 33%, Brighton & Hove Albion 67%
  • Corners2 corners10 cornersNewcastle United 2 corners, Brighton & Hove Albion 10 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsNewcastle United 10 fouls, Brighton & Hove Albion 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsNewcastle United 3 cards, Brighton & Hove Albion 3 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Newcastle United
2Draws
3Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion — Newcastle United · Premier League2–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Newcastle United · Premier League1–1
Newcastle United — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League0–1
Newcastle United — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League1–1
Brighton & Hove Albion — Newcastle United · Premier League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Newcastle United favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 5 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Newcastle United35 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion35 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored35/351.4 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲ 1.2 goals/match
1.56 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.75 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots35/3512.8 shots/match
4.57 shots/matchShots on target35/354.57 shots/match
52.4%Possession35/35● 53.3%
6.06 corners/match ●Corners35/354.86 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards29/292.48 cards/match
9.94 fouls/matchFouls35/3512.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNewcastle UnitedBrighton & Hove Albion
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2025/26
Head-to-headNewcastle United — Brighton & Hove Albion
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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