PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeTottenham Hotspur StadiumFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTottenhamAston Villa
Shots10 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners6 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/match▲CornersTottenham · Aston Villa5.5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricTottenhamAston VillaBaseline
Corners6 corners/match5.5 corners/match4.75 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Tottenham favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 3 · 6 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/810.5 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲11.4 shots/match
3.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.13 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3 shots/match
55.3%Possessionseason · 8/855.9%
6 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.5 corners/match
5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/85.38 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲1.75 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/89.75 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Tottenham67.5
Aston Villa77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Tottenham54.2
Aston Villa26.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Tottenham56.7
Aston Villa70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Tottenham7.5
Aston Villa2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Tottenham70
Aston Villa26.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Tottenham90
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Tottenham60.6
Aston Villa32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
55%Possession5/554.6%
8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots8/810.5 shots/match
3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.13 shots/match
55.3%Possession8/855.9%
6 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/89.75 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots8/810.5 shots/match
3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.13 shots/match
55.3%Possession8/855.9%
6 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/89.75 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots4/4▲11 shots/match
3.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/41.75 shots/match
58%Possession4/461.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45.75 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.5 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls4/49.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTottenhamAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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