PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi

Hellas Verona 0–1 Milan · Serie A

0–1Historical match

Milan

WLWLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 0–1.

Shots
136
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.710.85
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 1–0. Recorded in this match (Hellas Verona – AC Milan): shots 13–6, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.71–0.85, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.7 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AC Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.2%PossessionHellas Verona · AC Milan● 52.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHellas VeronaAC MilanBaseline
Possession41.2%52.6%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots6 shotsHellas Verona 13 shots, Milan 6 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsHellas Verona 2 shots, Milan 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG0.85 xGHellas Verona 0.71 xG, Milan 0.85 xG
  • Possession47%53%Hellas Verona 47%, Milan 53%
  • Corners6 corners1 cornerHellas Verona 6 corners, Milan 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls6 foulsHellas Verona 13 fouls, Milan 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsHellas Verona 2 cards, Milan 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ioan Vermesan · Hellas Verona · 69′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMoatasem Al-Musrati · Hellas Verona · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Bernede · Hellas Verona · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrias Edmundsson · Hellas Verona · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 32′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRafik Belghali · Hellas Verona · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGift Orban · Hellas Verona · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIoan Vermesan · Hellas Verona · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGift Orban · Hellas Verona · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGift Orban · Hellas Verona · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGift Orban · Hellas Verona · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRafik Belghali · Hellas Verona · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Ricci · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGift Orban · Hellas Verona · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRafik Belghali · Hellas Verona · 45′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.13 xG · on targetAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 41′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hellas Verona: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.51 xG. AC Milan: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.82 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Adrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 41′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hellas Verona 0.51 xG · AC Milan 0.82 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Hellas Verona
0Draws
5Milan
Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–0
Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0
Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A0–1
Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A1–3
Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hellas Verona favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hellas Verona33 matchesMilan33 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 1.45 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 0.82 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 1.58 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots33/33▲ 13.5 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲ 4.42 shots/match
41.2%Possession33/33● 52.6%
4 corners/matchCorners33/33● 4.45 corners/match
2.41 cards/matchCards29/281.68 cards/match
15.8 fouls/matchFouls33/339.73 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHellas VeronaMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headHellas Verona — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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