Serie A · 2025Mon, 6 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

LWWWW

1–0Full-time recap

AC Milan

LWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Napoli	AC Milan
Shots	10 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	0.75 xG/match▲	0.47 xG/match
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	4 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.52 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Napoli

0Draws

1AC Milan

28 Sept 2025AC Milan — Napoli · Serie A2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 3 · 7 too close

1.52 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/311.52 goals/match

0.97 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲0.77 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.03 xG/match

0.53 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.13 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/3113.5 shots/match

10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3111.1 shots/match

4.74 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/314.52 shots/match

2.84 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/313.42 shots/match

58.1%Possessionseason · 31/3152.3%

5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/314.58 corners/match

2.87 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/314.45 corners/match

1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/281.68 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/319.87 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲42%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/31▲87%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli87.5

AC Milan57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli73.3

AC Milan76.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli75

AC Milan79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli17.5

AC Milan72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli16.2

AC Milan12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli87.5

AC Milan72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli63.1

AC Milan56.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.8 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.03 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

63.8%Possession5/551.8%

6.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.03 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match

4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match

59.4%Possession10/1053.4%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match

12.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

31 / 31 matches

1.52 goals/matchGoals scored31/311.52 goals/match

0.97 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲0.77 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.03 xG/match

12.9 shots/matchShots31/3113.5 shots/match

4.74 shots/matchShots on target31/314.52 shots/match

58.1%Possession31/3152.3%

5.29 corners/matchCorners31/314.58 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards28/281.68 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls31/319.87 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

15 / 16 matches

1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored15/161.56 goals/match

0.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲0.69 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

13.2 shots/match▲Shots15/1611 shots/match

5.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/163.94 shots/match

58.4%Possession15/1650.8%

6 corners/matchCorners15/163.75 corners/match

1.15 cards/matchCards13/141.5 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls15/169.31 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

17.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 6 Apr 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

AC Milan have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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