Serie A · 2025Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

DDLLD

1–1Full-time recap

Napoli

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Parma	Napoli
Shots	3 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.19 xG/match	1.15 xG/match▲
Possession	26%	74%
Corners	3 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	4 fouls/match	8 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Parma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five shots average is below their season average.

6.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	6.2 shots/match	10.9 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Parma show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Parma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match▲ShotsParma · Napoli13 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Parma	Napoli	Baseline
Shots	10.9 shots/match	13 shots/match	11.9 shots/match
Shots against	14.1 shots/match	10.3 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.3%▲PossessionParma · Napoli58.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Parma	Napoli	Baseline
Possession	44.3%	58.6%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Parma

1Draws

0Napoli

14 Jan 2026Napoli — Parma · Serie A0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 10 · 4 too close

0.72 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 32/32▲1.5 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 32/32▲0.97 goals/match

0.37 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.24 xG/match

0.97 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/40.44 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 32/32▲13 shots/match

14.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 32/32▲10.3 shots/match

2.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 32/32▲4.75 shots/match

4.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 32/32▲2.81 shots/match

44.3%Possessionseason · 32/3258.6%

3.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 32/325.31 corners/match

4.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 32/32▲2.88 corners/match

1.93 cards/matchCardsseason · 28/28▲1.5 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3211.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/32▲34%

56%Scoring frequencyseason · 32/32▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma22.5

Napoli87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma17.5

Napoli75.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma35.8

Napoli77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma52.5

Napoli17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma25

Napoli15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 94%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma40

Napoli87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma23.1

Napoli63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match

0.37 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.24 xG/match

6.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match

2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match

42%Possession5/565.6%

3.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

0.37 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.24 xG/match

10 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.3 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match

46.2%Possession10/1061%

4.6 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match

1.67 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

32 / 32 matches

0.72 goals/matchGoals scored32/32▲1.5 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲0.97 goals/match

0.37 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.24 xG/match

10.9 shots/matchShots32/32▲13 shots/match

2.81 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲4.75 shots/match

44.3%Possession32/3258.6%

3.91 corners/matchCorners32/325.31 corners/match

1.93 cards/matchCards28/281.5 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls32/3211.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

16 / 17 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored16/17▲1.29 goals/match

1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed16/17▲1.06 goals/match

—Expected goals2/2—

12.1 shots/matchShots16/17▲12.9 shots/match

2.81 shots/matchShots on target16/17▲4.29 shots/match

45.6%Possession16/1758.8%

4.25 corners/matchCorners16/174.71 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards14/151.8 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1711.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.76 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples32 / 32home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Parma's recent record differs from the season

Parma show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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