PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

Lazio

WLDWD
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLazioAtalanta
Shots18 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.36 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.36 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match14.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsLazio · Atalanta14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLazioAtalantaBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match14.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match12 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lazio
1Draws
0Atalanta
Atalanta — Lazio · Serie A0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 8 · 4 too close

1.04 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲1.36 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲0.84 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲14.6 shots/match
14 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲12 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲4.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4 shots/match
50.2%Possessionseason · 25/2554%
3.64 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.64 corners/match
3.84 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/254.72 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.68 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2540%
52%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio52.5
Atalanta67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio39.2
Atalanta77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio39.2
Atalanta69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio12.5
Atalanta82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio47.5
Atalanta17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio22.5
Atalanta92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio28.8
Atalanta67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/546.4%
3 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
49.6%Possession10/1049.6%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲1.36 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲0.84 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots25/25▲14.6 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲4.6 shots/match
50.2%Possession25/2554%
3.64 corners/matchCorners25/255.64 corners/match
2.36 cards/matchCards25/251.68 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 12 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored13/121.17 goals/match
1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed13/12▲0.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1211.4 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/123.67 shots/match
50.2%Possession13/1253.2%
4.92 corners/matchCorners13/124.25 corners/match
2.62 cards/matchCards13/122.08 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1211.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.98 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLazioAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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