PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe SinigagliaFull-time recap

Como

DLWWD
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricComoFiorentina
Shots16 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession67%33%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Como's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible away split

moderate

Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Como show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Como's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsComo · Fiorentina13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricComoFiorentinaBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against9.71 shots/match13.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Como
0Draws
0Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Como · Coppa Italia1–3
Fiorentina — Como · Serie A1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Como favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 2 · 4 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/251.16 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/251.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2513.8 shots/match
9.71 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2513.4 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/253.68 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/254.72 shots/match
62.2%Possessionseason · 24/2552.4%
4.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/254.72 corners/match
3.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/254.64 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/25▲2.28 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2512.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2512%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/25▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Como97.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Como84.2
Fiorentina52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Como84.2
Fiorentina25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Como27.5
Fiorentina72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Como77.5
Fiorentina57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Como47.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Como68.8
Fiorentina52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
67.8%Possession5/548.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/matchShots10/1016.2 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target10/105.1 shots/match
64.2%Possession10/1053.3%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 25 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored24/251.16 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/251.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots24/2513.8 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target24/253.68 shots/match
62.2%Possession24/2552.4%
4.13 corners/matchCorners24/254.72 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards24/252.28 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls24/2512.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.62 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.92 goals/match
0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots13/1311.1 shots/match
6.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.92 shots/match
63.2%Possession13/1350%
4.38 corners/matchCorners13/133.62 corners/match
2.46 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.76 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsComoFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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