PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

Inter

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3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricInterJuventus
Shots21 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.4 goals/match2.4 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.72 corners/match▲CornersInter · Juventus5.2 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricInterJuventusBaseline
Corners6.72 corners/match5.2 corners/match4.23 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.5 shots/match▲ShotsInter · Juventus16.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInterJuventusBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match16.6 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against8.4 shots/match10.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Inter
0Draws
1Juventus
Juventus — Inter · Serie A4–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Juventus in 1 · 6 too close

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.72 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/250.92 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
18.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2516.6 shots/match
8.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2510.2 shots/match
6.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/256.16 shots/match
2.84 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/252.92 shots/match
60.2%Possessionseason · 25/2557.2%
6.72 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.2 corners/match
2.76 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/253.88 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/25▲1.36 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2512.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
52%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2536%
96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter92.5
Juventus77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter97.5
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter91.7
Juventus80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter97.5
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter40
Juventus20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter97.5
Juventus82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter90
Juventus76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
21.4 shots/match▲Shots5/518.4 shots/match
8.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/57 shots/match
63.8%Possession5/556.8%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.4 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/100.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1018 shots/match
7.6 shots/matchShots on target10/107.7 shots/match
61.3%Possession10/1057%
6 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.1 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.72 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/250.92 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.5 shots/match▲Shots25/2516.6 shots/match
6.4 shots/matchShots on target25/256.16 shots/match
60.2%Possession25/2557.2%
6.72 corners/matchCorners25/255.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards25/251.36 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls25/2512.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
2.77 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.38 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.4 shots/match▲Shots13/1313.8 shots/match
7.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/135.15 shots/match
60.1%Possession13/1357.2%
7.62 corners/matchCorners13/134.46 corners/match
1.62 cards/matchCards13/131.77 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsInterJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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