PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaCremonese
Shots29 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners13 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Cremonese8.71 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaCremoneseBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match8.71 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against11.8 shots/match17 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match14.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta
1Draws
0Cremonese
Cremonese — Atalanta · Serie A1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Cremonese in 0 · 4 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/240.88 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/248.71 shots/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2417 shots/match
4.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.04 shots/match
3.96 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.67 shots/match
54.2%Possessionseason · 24/2445.5%
5.71 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/243.17 corners/match
4.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/246.5 corners/match
1.58 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 24/242.08 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2413.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2425%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2454%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta67.5
Cremonese37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta75.8
Cremonese14.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta67.5
Cremonese15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta82.5
Cremonese2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta17.5
Cremonese52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Cremonese2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta66.9
Cremonese18.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.2 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/545.6%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.3 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots10/109 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.6 shots/match
50.5%Possession10/1045.1%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/102.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored24/240.88 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots24/248.71 shots/match
4.58 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.04 shots/match
54.2%Possession24/2445.5%
5.71 corners/matchCorners24/243.17 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCards24/242.08 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2413.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.77 goals/match
0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shots13/138.62 shots/match
5.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.77 shots/match
54.8%Possession13/1344.8%
6.92 corners/matchCorners13/133.38 corners/match
1.31 cards/matchCards13/132 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.02 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaCremonese
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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