PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

AS Roma

WWWDL
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAS RomaCagliari
Shots15 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsAS Roma · Cagliari9.92 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAS RomaCagliariBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match9.92 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against9.58 shots/match13.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

58%▲PossessionAS Roma · Cagliari45.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAS RomaCagliariBaseline
Possession58%45.3%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0AS Roma
0Draws
1Cagliari
Cagliari — AS Roma · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AS Roma favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 5 too close

1.21 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/241.17 goals/match
0.58 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.38 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/249.92 shots/match
9.58 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2413.5 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.04 shots/match
58%Possessionseason · 24/2445.3%
5.08 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/243.33 corners/match
3.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/245.71 corners/match
1.96 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 24/242.38 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2415.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2421%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2467%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AS Roma87.5
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AS Roma71.7
Cagliari27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AS Roma89.2
Cagliari28.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AS Roma32.5
Cagliari12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AS Roma63.8
Cagliari90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AS Roma77.5
Cagliari7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AS Roma80
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
60.4%Possession5/543.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/515.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
57.9%Possession10/1046.3%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored24/241.17 goals/match
0.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots24/249.92 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.5 shots/match
58%Possession24/2445.3%
5.08 corners/matchCorners24/243.33 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards24/242.38 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls24/2415.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 13 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/131 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.54 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1310.2 shots/match
5.08 shots/match▲Shots on target12/133.23 shots/match
58.4%Possession12/1344.2%
5.5 corners/matchCorners12/133 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards12/132.62 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1315.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 9 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAS RomaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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