Serie A · 2025Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

Lazio

LDWLD

3–2Full-time recap

Genoa

DDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lazio	Genoa
Shots	14 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	5 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.17 goals/match	1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lazio

0Draws

0Genoa

29 Sept 2025Genoa — Lazio · Serie A0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Genoa in 3 · 8 too close

1.04 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.17 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.48 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2311.3 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2313.4 shots/match

3.91 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/234.04 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/234.3 shots/match

50.8%Possessionseason · 23/2346.7%

3.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/233.39 corners/match

3.65 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/235.26 corners/match

2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲2.22 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2313.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2317%

52%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲70%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio52.5

Genoa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio34.2

Genoa45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio52.5

Genoa34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio7.5

Genoa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio55

Genoa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio32.5

Genoa12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio28.8

Genoa38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match

52.6%Possession5/545.2%

3.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.4 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match

3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4 shots/match

50.9%Possession10/1043.4%

4 corners/matchCorners10/102.6 corners/match

3.3 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches

1.04 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.17 goals/match

0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.48 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11 shots/matchShots23/2311.3 shots/match

3.91 shots/matchShots on target23/234.04 shots/match

50.8%Possession23/2346.7%

3.7 corners/matchCorners23/233.39 corners/match

2.43 cards/matchCards23/232.22 cards/match

10.8 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.36 goals/match

1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.73 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.4 shots/match▲Shots12/1111 shots/match

4.58 shots/match▲Shots on target12/114 shots/match

50.3%Possession12/1142.1%

4.92 corners/matchCorners12/113.18 corners/match

2.75 cards/matchCards12/112.36 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1113.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.24 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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