PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Fri, 16 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo AnconetaniFull-time recap

Pisa

DLDLD
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPisaAtalanta
Shots14 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners10 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Pisa, Atalanta. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atalanta's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Pisa, Atalanta.

6.24 days▲Rest daysPisa · Atalanta6 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPisaAtalantaBaseline
Rest days6.24 days6 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Pisa
1Draws
0Atalanta
Atalanta — Pisa · Serie A1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Pisa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 10 · 4 too close

0.76 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.24 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲14.2 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲10.8 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.29 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.9 shots/match
40.3%Possessionseason · 21/2156%
3.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.57 corners/match
4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.52 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲1.48 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲33%
48%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Pisa7.5
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Pisa12.5
Atalanta70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Pisa19.2
Atalanta67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Pisa57.5
Atalanta52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Pisa50
Atalanta15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Pisa37.5
Atalanta87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Pisa27.5
Atalanta62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/511.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
39%Possession5/550%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.8 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.5 shots/match
42.2%Possession10/1054.7%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
0.76 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.24 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲0.95 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots21/21▲14.2 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.29 shots/match
40.3%Possession21/2156%
3.95 corners/matchCorners21/215.57 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards21/211.48 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
0.18 goals/matchGoals scored11/10▲1.2 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots11/10▲11.9 shots/match
2.55 shots/matchShots on target11/10▲3.7 shots/match
42.6%Possession11/1056.7%
4.18 corners/matchCorners11/104.6 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards11/101.7 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1011.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPisaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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