PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Tue, 6 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

WLWLD
0–2Full-time recap

AS Roma

LWLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceAS Roma
Shots6 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession51%49%
Corners2 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lecce, AS Roma. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lecce, AS Roma.

3 days▲Rest daysLecce · AS Roma2.89 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLecceAS RomaBaseline
Rest days3 days2.89 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.83 shots/match▲ShotsLecce · AS Roma13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLecceAS RomaBaseline
Shots9.83 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AS Roma in 9 · 5 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/19▲1.16 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/19▲0.63 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.83 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/19▲13.1 shots/match
12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/19▲10.6 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/19▲4.79 shots/match
4.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/19▲3.68 shots/match
44.2%Possessionseason · 18/1957.3%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/195.11 corners/match
5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/19▲3.37 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/192 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1914.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/19▲42%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/19▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce17.5
AS Roma87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce7.5
AS Roma64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce43.3
AS Roma84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce17.5
AS Roma32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce30
AS Roma61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce77.5
AS Roma82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce31.2
AS Roma75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/555.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/515.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.3 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.4 shots/match
43.7%Possession10/1055.7%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 19 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored18/19▲1.16 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed18/19▲0.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.83 shots/matchShots18/19▲13.1 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target18/19▲4.79 shots/match
44.2%Possession18/1957.3%
5 corners/matchCorners18/195.11 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCards18/192 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1914.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
47%Possession10/1056.3%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1016.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.89 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 6 Jan 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceAS Roma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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