Serie A · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap

Atalanta

WLWWL

1–0Full-time recap

AS Roma

LLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atalanta	AS Roma
Shots	13 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Possession	45%	55%
Corners	7 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	15 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.83 corners/match▲CornersAtalanta · AS Roma5.28 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Atalanta	AS Roma	Baseline
Corners	5.83 corners/match	5.28 corners/match	4.29 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · AS Roma in 4 · 7 too close

1.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/181.11 goals/match

1.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲0.67 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

14.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1813.2 shots/match

10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1810.9 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲4.89 shots/match

3.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/183.83 shots/match

56.4%Possessionseason · 18/1857.8%

5.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.28 corners/match

4.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲3.44 corners/match

1.56 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.06 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1814.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲39%

78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1867%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta72.5

AS Roma87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta67.5

AS Roma65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta62.5

AS Roma74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta62.5

AS Roma17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta17.5

AS Roma61.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5

AS Roma82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta61.2

AS Roma75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/51 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match

56.8%Possession5/556.2%

6.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.6 shots/matchShots10/1013.1 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match

57.1%Possession10/1056.8%

5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches

1.17 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.11 goals/match

1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲0.67 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.4 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.2 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲4.89 shots/match

56.4%Possession18/1857.8%

5.83 corners/matchCorners18/185.28 corners/match

1.56 cards/matchCards18/182.06 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/91 goals/match

0.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲0.78 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.1 shots/match▲Shots10/912 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/95 shots/match

55.3%Possession10/957.1%

6.6 corners/matchCorners10/95.11 corners/match

1.3 cards/matchCards10/92.33 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/915.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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