PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeBluenergy Stadium - Stadio FriuliFull-time recap

Udinese

LWLWL
1–1Full-time recap

Lazio

WLDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUdineseLazio
Shots15 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Udinese's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Udinese have a visible home split

moderate

Udinese's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Udinese favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Lazio in 3 · 6 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/171.06 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1711.4 shots/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1713.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/174.12 shots/match
3.82 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/174.41 shots/match
46.6%Possessionseason · 17/1751.2%
4.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/173.82 corners/match
4.53 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲3.82 corners/match
1.94 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.24 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲53%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1753%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Udinese42.5
Lazio52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Udinese45
Lazio38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Udinese42.5
Lazio48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Udinese87.5
Lazio12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Udinese47.5
Lazio40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Udinese65
Lazio32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Udinese54.4
Lazio31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/512.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/553%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/53.8 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
44.4%Possession10/1053%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored17/171.06 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.4 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target17/174.12 shots/match
46.6%Possession17/1751.2%
4.65 corners/matchCorners17/173.82 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCards17/172.24 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.56 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots9/99.78 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.56 shots/match
48.4%Possession9/949%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/92.67 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/92.33 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls9/911.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUdineseLazio
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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