PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap
5–1Full-time recap

Udinese

LLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaUdinese
Shots20 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession63%37%
Corners1 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Udinese in 5 · 9 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/161.06 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.69 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1612.8 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1612.6 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4 shots/match
52.6%Possessionseason · 16/1646.6%
4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164.63 corners/match
4.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/164.44 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.88 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1613.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲25%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5
Udinese42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina37.5
Udinese47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina12.5
Udinese38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina47.5
Udinese82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina70
Udinese48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina60
Udinese67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina45.6
Udinese56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/matchShots5/515.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/545.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/515.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.9 shots/match
53.3%Possession10/1044.6%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
2.9 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.06 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots16/1612.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4 shots/match
52.6%Possession16/1646.6%
4.44 corners/matchCorners16/164.63 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards16/161.88 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots8/810.8 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.63 shots/match
52.4%Possession8/844.5%
4.88 corners/matchCorners8/84.75 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards8/82.38 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls8/813.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaUdinese
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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