PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Luigi FerrarisFull-time recap

Genoa

DDWWL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricGenoaAtalanta
Shots6 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession29%71%
Corners6 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match15 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.8%▲PossessionGenoa · Atalanta57.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGenoaAtalantaBaseline
Possession46.8%57.9%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa
0Draws
1Atalanta
Atalanta — Genoa · Coppa Italia4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 10 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.25 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲15 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲10.4 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4.63 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.94 shots/match
46.8%Possessionseason · 16/1657.9%
3.81 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.88 corners/match
4.94 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.94 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/16▲1.56 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1610.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲25%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa47.5
Atalanta87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa35
Atalanta70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa34.2
Atalanta70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa52.5
Atalanta62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa68.8
Atalanta12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa32.5
Atalanta92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa43.8
Atalanta63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
43.4%Possession5/559.4%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/104.6 shots/match
46.1%Possession10/1060.4%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.25 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots16/16▲15 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.63 shots/match
46.8%Possession16/1657.9%
3.81 corners/matchCorners16/165.88 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards16/161.56 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1610.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
0.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲1.13 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲1.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots9/812.4 shots/match
3.56 shots/matchShots on target9/83.5 shots/match
50.8%Possession9/857.9%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/84.88 corners/match
2.22 cards/matchCards9/81.88 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls9/811 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsGenoaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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