PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Luigi FerrarisFull-time recap

Genoa

WDDWW
1–2Full-time recap

Inter

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricGenoaInter
Shots5 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession36%64%
Corners1 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.07 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match▲ShotsGenoa · Inter17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGenoaInterBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match17.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match9.13 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.9%▲PossessionGenoa · Inter59.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGenoaInterBaseline
Possession47.9%59.5%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Inter in 10 · 4 too close

1.07 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲2.27 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲0.93 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲17.5 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲9.13 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲5.6 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲3.2 shots/match
47.9%Possessionseason · 15/1559.5%
3.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/157.2 corners/match
4.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲3 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.53 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1514.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲47%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa47.5
Inter92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa41.7
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa35
Inter83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa57.5
Inter92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa76.2
Inter42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa27.5
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa45
Inter91.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/55.4 shots/match
45.8%Possession5/556.8%
2 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/516.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.6 shots/match
46.3%Possession10/1058.7%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2.27 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.93 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots15/15▲17.5 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲5.6 shots/match
47.9%Possession15/1559.5%
3.67 corners/matchCorners15/157.2 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCards15/151.53 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1514.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/7▲1.86 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/7▲1.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots8/7▲16.9 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target8/7▲4.57 shots/match
53.5%Possession8/759.1%
3.5 corners/matchCorners8/76 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards8/71.86 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls8/714.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsGenoaInter
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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