PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaHellas Verona
Shots20 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners9 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match22 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.9%▲PossessionFiorentina · Hellas Verona39.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaHellas VeronaBaseline
Possession51.9%39.1%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 5 · 7 too close

0.8 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲0.87 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.47 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1512.2 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1513.1 shots/match
2.73 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲4.73 shots/match
5.07 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲4.27 shots/match
51.9%Possessionseason · 15/1539.1%
4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/153.87 corners/match
4.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/154.53 corners/match
2.47 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.8 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1517.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲20%
67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5
Hellas Verona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina25.8
Hellas Verona47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina15
Hellas Verona34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina37.5
Hellas Verona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina68.8
Hellas Verona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina65
Hellas Verona37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina44.4
Hellas Verona63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
55.4%Possession5/542.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/53.6 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/519.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.1 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/1011.6 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
51.5%Possession10/1040.2%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/103.1 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1017.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲0.87 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.47 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots15/1512.2 shots/match
2.73 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.73 shots/match
51.9%Possession15/1539.1%
4.67 corners/matchCorners15/153.87 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCards15/152.8 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls15/1517.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored7/80.63 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/8▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots7/811.5 shots/match
3.43 shots/matchShots on target7/8▲4 shots/match
50.9%Possession7/836.9%
5.43 corners/matchCorners7/82.88 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards7/83 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls7/818.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.76 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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