PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeBluenergy Stadium - Stadio FriuliFull-time recap

Udinese

WLLWL
1–0Full-time recap

Napoli

DLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUdineseNapoli
Shots18 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession38%62%
Corners1 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Udinese's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Udinese have a visible home split

moderate

Udinese's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

4.67 corners/match▲CornersUdinese · Napoli5.53 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricUdineseNapoliBaseline
Corners4.67 corners/match5.53 corners/match4.1 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Udinese favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 8 · 5 too close

1.07 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.47 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲0.87 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1512.7 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲11.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲4.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/15▲2.73 shots/match
47.3%Possessionseason · 15/1556.5%
4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/155.53 corners/match
4.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲2.87 corners/match
1.87 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲1.47 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1512.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲33%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1573%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Udinese42.5
Napoli67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Udinese46.7
Napoli74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Udinese46.7
Napoli79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Udinese82.5
Napoli12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Udinese48.8
Napoli15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Udinese65
Napoli80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Udinese55.6
Napoli61.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/57.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/552%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
16.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.6 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/104 shots/match
46.9%Possession10/1054.5%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
15.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.07 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.47 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.87 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots15/1512.7 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.8 shots/match
47.3%Possession15/1556.5%
4.67 corners/matchCorners15/155.53 corners/match
1.87 cards/matchCards15/151.47 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored8/81 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots8/812.5 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target8/84.25 shots/match
48.8%Possession8/858.1%
4.5 corners/matchCorners8/84.88 corners/match
1.38 cards/matchCards8/81.25 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls8/812.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.76 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUdineseNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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