PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 28 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Inter

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaInter
Shots7 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners4 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.76 corners/match▲CornersAtalanta · Inter7.19 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaInterBaseline
Corners5.76 corners/match7.19 corners/match4.21 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

weak

Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.19 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Inter17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaInterBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match17.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Inter in 10 · 4 too close

1.18 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/16▲2.19 goals/match
1.12 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/16▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/16▲17.3 shots/match
10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/16▲9 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/16▲5.5 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/16▲3 shots/match
57.1%Possessionseason · 17/1659.3%
5.76 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/167.19 corners/match
4.12 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/16▲3.06 corners/match
1.59 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/16▲1.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1614.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/16▲50%
76%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/16▲94%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta82.5
Inter92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta67.5
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta70.8
Inter85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta62.5
Inter92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta15
Inter37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta87.5
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta58.8
Inter90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
57.4%Possession5/557%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/514 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.6 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
59.1%Possession10/1057.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 16 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored17/16▲2.19 goals/match
1.12 goals/matchGoals allowed17/16▲0.88 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/matchShots17/16▲17.3 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on target17/16▲5.5 shots/match
57.1%Possession17/1659.3%
5.76 corners/matchCorners17/167.19 corners/match
1.59 cards/matchCards17/161.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls17/1614.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲1.75 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/81.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/matchShots9/816.6 shots/match
5.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/84.5 shots/match
56.4%Possession9/858.6%
6.56 corners/matchCorners9/86.13 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards9/81.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/814.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaInter
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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