PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

DLWLW
0–3Full-time recap

Como

DWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceComo
Shots11 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession38%62%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match24 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Como have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Como's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Como have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.8%▲PossessionLecce · Como60%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLecceComoBaseline
Possession44.8%60%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsLecce · Como13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLecceComoBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Como in 9 · 4 too close

0.69 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲13.7 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.1 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲5 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4 shots/match
44.8%Possessionseason · 16/1660%
5.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/164 corners/match
5.06 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.94 corners/match
1.81 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.56 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1615 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲44%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲63%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce22.5
Como97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce10
Como82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce42.5
Como70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce32.5
Como22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce32.5
Como90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce82.5
Como45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce35
Como75.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
44.2%Possession5/559%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.9 shots/match
2.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
46.6%Possession10/1061.2%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
0.69 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/matchShots16/16▲13.7 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲5 shots/match
44.8%Possession16/1660%
5.44 corners/matchCorners16/164 corners/match
1.81 cards/matchCards16/162.56 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1615 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.22 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.1 shots/match
3.44 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲3.78 shots/match
46.6%Possession9/959.1%
5.44 corners/matchCorners9/93.89 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/92.56 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls9/915.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/111.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceComo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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