PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

DWLWL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParmaFiorentina
Shots13 shots/match23 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.4%▲PossessionParma · Fiorentina52.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParmaFiorentinaBaseline
Possession42.4%52.9%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 5 · 5 too close

0.69 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/17▲1 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/171.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/17▲13.3 shots/match
14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/17▲13.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/173.06 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/174.82 shots/match
42.4%Possessionseason · 16/1752.9%
3.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/174.53 corners/match
4.94 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/17▲4.59 corners/match
2.25 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/172.47 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1713.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1712%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/17▲65%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma12.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma16.7
Fiorentina37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma37.5
Fiorentina20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma72.5
Fiorentina57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma40
Fiorentina70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma2.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma15
Fiorentina50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
44.2%Possession5/559.6%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.9 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.7 shots/match
39.9%Possession10/1054.7%
2.8 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 17 matches
0.69 goals/matchGoals scored16/17▲1 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/171.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots16/17▲13.3 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target16/173.06 shots/match
42.4%Possession16/1752.9%
3.19 corners/matchCorners16/174.53 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards16/172.47 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1713.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
0.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.56 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots9/911.4 shots/match
2.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.33 shots/match
43.7%Possession9/953.3%
3.44 corners/matchCorners9/94.22 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls9/913.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.77 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParmaFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match