Serie A · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeMAPEI Stadium - Città del TricoloreFull-time recap

Sassuolo

LWDLD

1–1Full-time recap

Parma

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sassuolo	Parma
Shots	11 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	4 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	7 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.8 shots/match	11.7 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sassuolo favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Parma in 5 · 5 too close

1.28 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/170.71 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/17▲1.12 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/17▲11.7 shots/match

13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1714 shots/match

3.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/173.12 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/17▲4.18 shots/match

45.9%Possessionseason · 18/1742.6%

3.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/173.41 corners/match

4.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/174.88 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/17▲2.18 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1710.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/17▲29%

72%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1753%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sassuolo32.5

Parma12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sassuolo41.7

Parma20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sassuolo27.5

Parma39.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sassuolo27.5

Parma82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo65

Parma33.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo17.5

Parma7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sassuolo30.6

Parma17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match

3.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

45.8%Possession5/545.4%

3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match

14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.8 shots/match

4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match

47.6%Possession10/1041.5%

3.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 17 matches

1.28 goals/match▲Goals scored18/170.71 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed18/17▲1.12 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.6 shots/matchShots18/17▲11.7 shots/match

3.78 shots/match▲Shots on target18/173.12 shots/match

45.9%Possession18/1742.6%

3.5 corners/matchCorners18/173.41 corners/match

2.44 cards/matchCards18/172.18 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls18/1710.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches

1.22 goals/match▲Goals scored9/80.63 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.7 shots/matchShots9/811.1 shots/match

3.44 shots/matchShots on target9/83.63 shots/match

48.2%Possession9/841.5%

3.56 corners/matchCorners9/83.38 corners/match

2.56 cards/matchCards9/82.38 cards/match

13.3 fouls/matchFouls9/810.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples18 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match