Serie A · 2025Mon, 29 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

AS Roma

WLLWL

3–1Full-time recap

Genoa

DWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AS Roma	Genoa
Shots	16 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	61%	39%
Corners	6 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	0 cards/match▲	1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.9%▲PossessionAS Roma · Genoa46.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	AS Roma	Genoa	Baseline
Possession	57.9%	46.3%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AS Roma favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Genoa in 0 · 4 too close

1.18 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171 goals/match

0.65 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.59 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1711.4 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1712.4 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173.94 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/174.53 shots/match

57.9%Possessionseason · 17/1746.3%

5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/173.65 corners/match

3.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/175 corners/match

2.06 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.35 cards/match

14.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1714.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1712%

71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1765%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AS Roma87.5

Genoa42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AS Roma70

Genoa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AS Roma79.2

Genoa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AS Roma27.5

Genoa52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AS Roma62.5

Genoa66.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AS Roma77.5

Genoa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AS Roma76.2

Genoa39.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.6 shots/match

4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match

56.4%Possession5/541.2%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match

2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match

14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match

5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match

57.2%Possession10/1043.1%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match

2.3 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match

13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches

1.18 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171 goals/match

0.65 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.59 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.4 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.4 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.94 shots/match

57.9%Possession17/1746.3%

5.29 corners/matchCorners17/173.65 corners/match

2.06 cards/matchCards17/172.35 cards/match

14.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1714.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches

1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲1.5 goals/match

0.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/81.88 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.4 shots/match▲Shots9/810.9 shots/match

4.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/84.38 shots/match

58.4%Possession9/841.3%

5.44 corners/matchCorners9/83.5 corners/match

1.78 cards/matchCards9/82.5 cards/match

13.2 fouls/matchFouls9/813.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 29 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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