PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 28 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAC MilanHellas Verona
Shots11 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.81 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AC Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.4%▲PossessionAC Milan · Hellas Verona39.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanHellas VeronaBaseline
Possession51.4%39.6%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 0 · 4 too close

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/160.81 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1612 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612.9 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.5 shots/match
3.31 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.31 shots/match
51.4%Possessionseason · 16/1639.6%
4.19 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.81 corners/match
4.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/164.69 corners/match
1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.69 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1617.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%
94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan57.5
Hellas Verona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan80
Hellas Verona39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan76.7
Hellas Verona32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan67.5
Hellas Verona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan3.8
Hellas Verona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan47.5
Hellas Verona30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan49.4
Hellas Verona56.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
51.4%Possession5/543.6%
4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/518.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
51.9%Possession10/1039.2%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/103 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1017.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.81 goals/match
0.81 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots16/1612 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.5 shots/match
51.4%Possession16/1639.6%
4.19 corners/matchCorners16/163.81 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards16/162.69 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls16/1617.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.56 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots9/911.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.67 shots/match
50.9%Possession9/938.1%
5.11 corners/matchCorners9/92.89 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/92.78 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/917.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAC MilanHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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