PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Fri, 2 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeUnipol DomusFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCagliariAC Milan
Shots6 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.61 shots/match▲ShotsCagliari · AC Milan13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCagliariAC MilanBaseline
Shots9.61 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 10 · 4 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/17▲1.65 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/17▲0.76 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.61 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/17▲13.2 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/17▲10.6 shots/match
3.39 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/17▲4.71 shots/match
5.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/17▲3.18 shots/match
45.2%Possessionseason · 18/1751.6%
3.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/174.35 corners/match
5.39 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/17▲4.53 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/17▲1.47 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/179.41 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/17▲53%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/17▲94%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari27.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari24.2
AC Milan74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari22.5
AC Milan84.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari7.5
AC Milan67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari85
AC Milan2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari17.5
AC Milan52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari36.2
AC Milan46.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
47.4%Possession5/555%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.7 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
45%Possession10/1051.7%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
16.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 17 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored18/17▲1.65 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed18/17▲0.76 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.61 shots/matchShots18/17▲13.2 shots/match
3.39 shots/matchShots on target18/17▲4.71 shots/match
45.2%Possession18/1751.6%
3.44 corners/matchCorners18/174.35 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCards18/171.47 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls18/179.41 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲1.63 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲0.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots9/8▲11.3 shots/match
3.78 shots/matchShots on target9/8▲4.38 shots/match
47.6%Possession9/852.4%
3.78 corners/matchCorners9/83.5 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards9/81.25 cards/match
16.2 fouls/matchFouls9/88.13 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.34 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 2 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCagliariAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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