PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Unipol Domus

Cagliari 0–1 Milan · Serie A

0–1Historical match

Milan

WWWDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 0–1.

Shots
611
Shots on target
14
Expected goals
0.380.7
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Cagliari 1–0. Recorded in this match (Cagliari – AC Milan): shots 6–11, shots on target 1–4, expected goals 0.38–0.7, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.61 shots/match ▲ShotsCagliari · AC Milan13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCagliariAC MilanBaseline
Shots9.61 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots11 shotsCagliari 6 shots, Milan 11 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot4 shotsCagliari 1 shot, Milan 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.38 xG0.7 xGCagliari 0.38 xG, Milan 0.7 xG
  • Possession46%54%Cagliari 46%, Milan 54%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersCagliari 6 corners, Milan 7 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsCagliari 10 fouls, Milan 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardCagliari 2 cards, Milan 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Youssouf Fofana · AC Milan · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKoni De Winter · AC Milan · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRafael Leão · AC Milan · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichel Adopo · Cagliari · 32′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 49′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSemih Kılıçsoy · Cagliari · 70′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuca Mazzitelli · Cagliari · 41′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 50′ · 0.16 xG · goalChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 87′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMarco Palestra · Cagliari · 2′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.50 xG. AC Milan: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 0.50 xG · AC Milan 0.71 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Cagliari
2Draws
3Milan
Milan — Cagliari · Serie A1–1
Cagliari — Milan · Serie A3–3
Milan — Cagliari · Serie A5–1
Cagliari — Milan · Serie A1–3
Cagliari — Milan · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cagliari favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cagliari18 matchesMilan17 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored18/17▲ 1.65 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed18/17▲ 0.76 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals18/17▲ 1.56 xG/match
9.61 shots/matchShots18/17▲ 13.2 shots/match
3.39 shots/matchShots on target18/17▲ 4.71 shots/match
45.3%Possession18/17● 51.6%
3.44 corners/matchCorners18/17● 4.35 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCards18/171.47 cards/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls18/179.41 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 2 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCagliariMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headCagliari — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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