PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Ennio Tardini

Parma 0–1 Lazio · Serie A

Parma

LDWLW
0–1Historical match

Lazio

WLWLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lazio won 0–1.

Shots
1915
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.081.35
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lazio beat Parma 1–0. Recorded in this match (Parma – Lazio): shots 19–15, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.08–1.35, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.67 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lazio have a visible away split

moderate

Lazio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.25 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lazio have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.4%PossessionParma · Lazio● 50.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParmaLazioBaseline
Possession42.4%50.7%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots15 shotsParma 19 shots, Lazio 15 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsParma 5 shots, Lazio 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.08 xG1.35 xGParma 1.08 xG, Lazio 1.35 xG
  • Possession47%53%Parma 47%, Lazio 53%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersParma 4 corners, Lazio 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsParma 14 fouls, Lazio 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardParma 2 cards, Lazio 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Valentín Castellanos · Lazio · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMattia Zaccagni · Lazio · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanilo Cataldi · Lazio · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Valenti · Parma · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Cancellieri · Lazio · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMariano Troilo · Parma · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMariano Troilo · Parma · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNahuel Estévez · Parma · 84′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNahuel Estévez · Parma · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Benedyczak · Parma · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Parma · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMatteo Cancellieri · Lazio · 53′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEmanuele Valeri · Parma · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMilan Đurić · Parma · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Romagnoli · Lazio · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedToma Bašić · Lazio · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Valenti · Parma · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 41′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 14′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedValentín Castellanos · Lazio · 34′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Cancellieri · Lazio · 4′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 47′ · 0.10 xG · on targetGaetano Oristanio · Parma · 30′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Cancellieri · Lazio · 41′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedToma Bašić · Lazio · 38′ · 0.17 xG · on targetAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 60′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAdam Marušić · Lazio · 16′ · 0.26 xG · on targetTijjani Noslin · Lazio · 82′ · 0.43 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Parma: 19 shots, 5 on target, 1.08 xG. Lazio: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Tijjani Noslin · Lazio · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 1.08 xG · Lazio 1.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Parma
1Draws
0Lazio
Lazio — Parma · Serie A2–2
Parma — Lazio · Serie A3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Parma favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Lazio in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Parma15 matchesLazio15 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 0.73 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.08 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots15/1511.4 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲ 4.47 shots/match
42.4%Possession15/15● 50.7%
3.07 corners/matchCorners15/15● 3.73 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards15/152 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParmaLazio
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headParma — Lazio
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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