PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

LDWLW
0–1Full-time recap

Lazio

WLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParmaLazio
Shots19 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Lazio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lazio have a visible away split

moderate

Lazio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.25 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lazio have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.4%▲PossessionParma · Lazio50.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParmaLazioBaseline
Possession42.4%50.7%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Lazio in 7 · 6 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.13 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲0.73 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1511.4 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1513.7 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲4.47 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/154.6 shots/match
42.4%Possessionseason · 15/1550.7%
3.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/153.73 corners/match
4.87 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲4 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/15▲2 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲53%
47%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲53%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma12.5
Lazio52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma16.7
Lazio47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma39.2
Lazio44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma77.5
Lazio12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma42.5
Lazio31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma2.5
Lazio27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma16.2
Lazio32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/513.4 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
44.4%Possession5/553.4%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots10/1011.2 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
42%Possession10/1051%
2.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.13 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲0.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots15/1511.4 shots/match
3.07 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.47 shots/match
42.4%Possession15/1550.7%
3.07 corners/matchCorners15/153.73 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards15/152 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
0.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.5 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots8/89.25 shots/match
2.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲3.88 shots/match
43.9%Possession8/848.4%
3.25 corners/matchCorners8/82.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards8/82.13 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls8/810.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParmaLazio
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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