PitchMath
Serie A · 2025New Balance Arena

Atalanta 2–1 Cagliari · Serie A

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atalanta won 2–1.

Shots
178
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
2.60.54
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta beat Cagliari 2–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Cagliari): shots 17–8, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 2.6–0.54, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAtalanta · Cagliari9.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaCagliariBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match9.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match13 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots8 shotsAtalanta 17 shots, Cagliari 8 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotAtalanta 8 shots, Cagliari 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.6 xG0.54 xGAtalanta 2.6 xG, Cagliari 0.54 xG
  • Possession58%42%Atalanta 58%, Cagliari 42%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersAtalanta 5 corners, Cagliari 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsAtalanta 13 fouls, Cagliari 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsAtalanta 1 card, Cagliari 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marco Palestra · Cagliari · 18′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 56′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGennaro Borrelli · Cagliari · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOdilon Kossounou · Atalanta · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicola Zalewski · Atalanta · 85′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicola Zalewski · Atalanta · 85′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarco Palestra · Cagliari · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 41′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGennaro Borrelli · Cagliari · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 27′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdam Obert · Cagliari · 34′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Atalanta · 68′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 11′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBerat Djimsiti · Atalanta · 27′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 7′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 39′ · 0.13 xG · on targetGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 75′ · 0.27 xG · goalAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 7′ · 0.33 xG · on targetGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 11′ · 0.35 xG · goalCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 41′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 81′ · 0.70 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 17 shots, 8 on target, 2.62 xG. Cagliari: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Gianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 11′Gianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 81′Gianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 2.62 xG · Cagliari 0.54 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atalanta
1Draws
2Cagliari
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A0–0
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A2–1
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A2–0
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta15 matchesCagliari15 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151 goal/match
1.2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/151.4 goals/match
1.4 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/150.9 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots15/159.6 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/153.4 shots/match
56.9% ●Possession15/1544.4%
5.6 corners/match ●Corners15/153.47 corners/match
1.53 cards/matchCards15/152.53 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1516.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaCagliari
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headAtalanta — Cagliari
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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