PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaCagliari
Shots17 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Cagliari9.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaCagliariBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match9.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match13 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 5 too close

1.27 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/151 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/151.4 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/159.6 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1513 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/153.4 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/155.07 shots/match
57%Possessionseason · 15/1544.3%
5.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/153.47 corners/match
3.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.2 corners/match
1.53 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 15/152.53 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1516.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1520%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1567%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta72.5
Cagliari22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta70.8
Cagliari21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta62.5
Cagliari25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta62.5
Cagliari7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta7.5
Cagliari90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta87.5
Cagliari12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta61.2
Cagliari35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/58.6 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
58.8%Possession5/541.2%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/517.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots10/108.7 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
58.4%Possession10/1044.6%
5.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1016.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots15/159.6 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.4 shots/match
57%Possession15/1544.3%
5.6 corners/matchCorners15/153.47 corners/match
1.53 cards/matchCards15/152.53 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1516.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shots8/89.25 shots/match
5.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.88 shots/match
57.9%Possession8/842.8%
6.88 corners/matchCorners8/83.25 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards8/82.5 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls8/815.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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