Serie A · 2025Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

WDLWL

1–0Full-time recap

Pisa

DWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Pisa
Shots	21 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	0 shots/match
Possession	51%	49%
Corners	12 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	6 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.73 goals/match	1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Pisa in 0 · 7 too close

0.73 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/150.67 goals/match

1.27 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.33 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/159.73 shots/match

11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1516 shots/match

2.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/152.27 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/154.4 shots/match

45.3%Possessionseason · 15/1540.7%

5.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/153.27 corners/match

5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/155.53 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 15/151.87 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1512.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1527%

53%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1540%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce27.5

Pisa7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce14.2

Pisa5.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce47.5

Pisa24.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce22.5

Pisa42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce37.5

Pisa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce77.5

Pisa7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce37.5

Pisa12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/52.6 shots/match

48.4%Possession5/544.8%

6.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match

13.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.7 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.5 shots/match▲Shots10/109 shots/match

2.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102 shots/match

46.5%Possession10/1042%

6.3 corners/matchCorners10/102.9 corners/match

1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match

14.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches

0.73 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.67 goals/match

1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.33 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.3 shots/match▲Shots15/159.73 shots/match

2.73 shots/match▲Shots on target15/152.27 shots/match

45.3%Possession15/1540.7%

5.53 corners/matchCorners15/153.27 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards15/151.87 cards/match

13.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 7 matches

0.75 goals/matchGoals scored8/7▲1.29 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/72.14 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

11.3 shots/match▲Shots8/78.86 shots/match

3.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/72.29 shots/match

47.6%Possession8/736.1%

5.63 corners/matchCorners8/72.29 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards8/71.43 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls8/712.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.24 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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