PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio Giovanni ZiniFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Lecce

LWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCremoneseLecce
Shots11 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cremonese's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cremonese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cremonese's last-five shots average is above their season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season8.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match8.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cremonese show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Cremonese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.5 shots/match▲ShotsCremonese · Lecce9.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCremoneseLecceBaseline
Shots8.5 shots/match9.5 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against16.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cremonese favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 6 · 4 too close

1.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/140.71 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.36 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲9.5 shots/match
16.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲12.4 shots/match
3.36 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/142.71 shots/match
5.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲4.5 shots/match
45.7%Possessionseason · 14/1444.9%
3.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.07 corners/match
6.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲5.29 corners/match
2.07 cards/matchCardsseason · 14/14▲1.79 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲36%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cremonese37.5
Lecce27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cremonese29.2
Lecce9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cremonese20.8
Lecce38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cremonese2.5
Lecce7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cremonese41.2
Lecce32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cremonese15
Lecce72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cremonese15.6
Lecce30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/match▲Shots5/59.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
49.4%Possession5/545.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.5 shots/matchShots10/109.6 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match
45.6%Possession10/1044.7%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.71 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.5 shots/matchShots14/14▲9.5 shots/match
3.36 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.71 shots/match
45.7%Possession14/1444.9%
3.43 corners/matchCorners14/145.07 corners/match
2.07 cards/matchCards14/141.79 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots7/79.14 shots/match
3.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.14 shots/match
47.3%Possession7/742.6%
3.57 corners/matchCorners7/75.43 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/71.57 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/713.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.66 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCremoneseLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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