PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Bologna 1–3 Cremonese · Serie A

Bologna

DDWWW
1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Cremonese won 1–3.

Shots
2910
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
2.722.13
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cremonese beat Bologna 3–1. Recorded in this match (Bologna – Cremonese): shots 29–10, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 2.72–2.13, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cremonese show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Cremonese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsBologna · Cremonese8.31 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBolognaCremoneseBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match8.31 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against9.69 shots/match17.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five shots average is above their season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season8.31 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match8.31 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots29 shots10 shotsBologna 29 shots, Cremonese 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsBologna 7 shots, Cremonese 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.72 xG2.13 xGBologna 2.72 xG, Cremonese 2.13 xG
  • Possession65%35%Bologna 65%, Cremonese 35%
  • Corners13 corners8 cornersBologna 13 corners, Cremonese 8 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls12 foulsBologna 13 fouls, Cremonese 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsBologna 0 cards, Cremonese 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMartín Payero · Cremonese · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Bologna · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Bologna · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenjamín Domínguez · Bologna · 8′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJens Odgaard · Bologna · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Bologna · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Barbieri · Cremonese · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolò Casale · Bologna · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Bologna · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Castro · Bologna · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMartín Payero · Cremonese · 58′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 71′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Cambiaghi · Bologna · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Bologna · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJhon Lucumí · Bologna · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Castro · Bologna · 76′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMartín Payero · Cremonese · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFilippo Terracciano · Cremonese · 57′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJhon Lucumí · Bologna · 73′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSantiago Castro · Bologna · 83′ · 0.12 xG · on targetNicolò Casale · Bologna · 38′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Bologna · 19′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 35′ · 0.23 xG · goalJamie Vardy · Cremonese · 50′ · 0.34 xG · goalSantiago Castro · Bologna · 11′ · 0.38 xG · on targetMartín Payero · Cremonese · 31′ · 0.42 xG · goalFilippo Terracciano · Cremonese · 79′ · 0.79 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bologna: 29 shots, 7 on target, 2.74 xG. Cremonese: 10 shots, 5 on target, 2.10 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 45′Martín Payero · Cremonese · 31′Jamie Vardy · Cremonese · 35′Jamie Vardy · Cremonese · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bologna 2.74 xG · Cremonese 2.10 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bologna
1Draws
0Cremonese
Cremonese — Bologna · Serie A1–5
Bologna — Cremonese · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bologna favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Cremonese in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bologna13 matchesCremonese13 matches
1.69 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.23 goals/match
0.85 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.31 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/130.99 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots13/138.31 shots/match
4.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.31 shots/match
57.4% ●Possession13/1345.5%
5.77 corners/match ●Corners13/133.31 corners/match
1.92 cards/matchCards13/132.15 cards/match
14.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 1 Dec 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBolognaCremonese
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headBologna — Cremonese
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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