PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Lazio

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAC MilanLazio
Shots16 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners1 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lazio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lazio have a visible away split

moderate

Lazio's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.43 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.43 shots/match10.8 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Lazio in 1 · 6 too close

1.46 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.15 goals/match
0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/130.77 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/1310.8 shots/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 13/1313.3 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/134.08 shots/match
3.46 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/134.46 shots/match
49.8%Possessionseason · 13/1350.8%
3.77 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/133.46 corners/match
4.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲4.08 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCardsseason · 13/131.77 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1310.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
54%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1354%
92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1346%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan52.5
Lazio62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan71.7
Lazio43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan72.5
Lazio45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan82.5
Lazio12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan15
Lazio25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan35
Lazio27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan43.1
Lazio29.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/511 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
44%Possession5/555.8%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
0.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/100.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.3 shots/match
49%Possession10/1049.4%
2.8 corners/matchCorners10/103 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.46 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.15 goals/match
0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/130.77 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.8 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target13/134.08 shots/match
49.8%Possession13/1350.8%
3.77 corners/matchCorners13/133.46 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards13/131.77 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.43 goals/match
0.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/70.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots7/78.43 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.71 shots/match
49.6%Possession7/747.7%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/72 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards7/72 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.11 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 29 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAC MilanLazio
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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