PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Inter 0–1 Milan · Serie A

Inter

WLWWW
0–1Historical match

Milan

WDDWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 0–1.

Shots
207
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.921.01
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan beat Inter 1–0. Recorded in this match (Inter – AC Milan): shots 20–7, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.92–1.01, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.17 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.3 shots/match ▲ShotsInter · AC Milan13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInterAC MilanBaseline
Shots18.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against8.92 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots7 shotsInter 20 shots, Milan 7 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsInter 6 shots, Milan 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.92 xG1.01 xGInter 1.92 xG, Milan 1.01 xG
  • Possession64%36%Inter 64%, Milan 36%
  • Corners9 corners1 cornerInter 9 corners, Milan 1 corner
  • Fouls7 fouls9 foulsInter 7 fouls, Milan 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsInter 1 card, Milan 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedManuel Akanji · Inter · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 75′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAndy Diouf · Inter · 88′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFederico Dimarco · Inter · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 4′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLautaro Martínez · Inter · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPetar Sučić · Inter · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Barella · Inter · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlessandro Bastoni · Inter · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Barella · Inter · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Augusto · Inter · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 68′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFrancesco Acerbi · Inter · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAnge-Yoan Bonny · Inter · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 54′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLautaro Martínez · Inter · 37′ · 0.14 xG · on targetFrancesco Acerbi · Inter · 81′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 54′ · 0.70 xG · goalHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 74′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Inter: 20 shots, 6 on target, 1.94 xG. AC Milan: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Christian Pulišić · AC Milan · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Inter 1.94 xG · AC Milan 1.05 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Inter
1Draws
1Milan
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–1
Inter — Milan · Serie A1–2
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–2
Inter — Milan · Serie A5–1
Inter — Milan · UEFA Champions League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Inter favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Inter12 matchesMilan12 matches
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.5 goals/match
1.08 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 0.75 goals/match
1.91 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.57 xG/match
18.3 shots/match ▲Shots12/1213.1 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/124.67 shots/match
60.6% ●Possession12/1250.2%
7.42 corners/match ●Corners12/124 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards12/121.58 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls12/129.83 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsInterMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headInter — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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