PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giovanni Zini

Cremonese 1–3 Roma · Serie A

1–3Historical match

Roma

LWWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Roma won 1–3.

Shots
912
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
0.891.9
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

AS Roma beat Cremonese 3–1. Recorded in this match (Cremonese – AS Roma): shots 9–12, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 0.89–1.9, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AS Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AS Roma's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AS Roma show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

AS Roma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.17 shots/match ▲ShotsCremonese · AS Roma14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCremoneseAS RomaBaseline
Shots8.17 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against16.1 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.3%PossessionCremonese · AS Roma● 58.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCremoneseAS RomaBaseline
Possession46.3%58.6%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots12 shotsCremonese 9 shots, Roma 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsCremonese 4 shots, Roma 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.89 xG1.9 xGCremonese 0.89 xG, Roma 1.9 xG
  • Possession50%50%Cremonese 50%, Roma 50%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersCremonese 3 corners, Roma 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls16 foulsCremonese 12 fouls, Roma 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsCremonese 2 cards, Roma 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tommaso Baldanzi · AS Roma · 42′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTommaso Barbieri · Cremonese · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZeki Çelik · AS Roma · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · AS Roma · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFranco Vázquez · Cremonese · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartín Payero · Cremonese · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedManu Koné · AS Roma · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedZeki Çelik · AS Roma · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatías Soulé · AS Roma · 17′ · 0.10 xG · goalTommaso Baldanzi · AS Roma · 26′ · 0.10 xG · on targetFrancesco Folino · Cremonese · 90′ · 0.13 xG · goalJari Vandeputte · Cremonese · 30′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMatías Soulé · AS Roma · 59′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJari Vandeputte · Cremonese · 30′ · 0.22 xG · on targetGianluca Mancini · AS Roma · 54′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedEvan Ferguson · AS Roma · 64′ · 0.25 xG · goalFederico Bonazzoli · Cremonese · 15′ · 0.27 xG · on targetWesley · AS Roma · 69′ · 0.38 xG · goalLorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma · 39′ · 0.48 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cremonese: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.92 xG. AS Roma: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Francesco Folino · Cremonese · 90′Matías Soulé · AS Roma · 17′Evan Ferguson · AS Roma · 64′Wesley · AS Roma · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cremonese 0.92 xG · AS Roma 1.89 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cremonese
0Draws
1Roma
Cremonese — Roma · Serie A2–1
Roma — Cremonese · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cremonese favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Roma in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cremonese12 matchesRoma12 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 0.5 goals/match
0.9 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.37 xG/match
8.17 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 14.2 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 5.25 shots/match
46.3%Possession12/12● 58.6%
2.92 corners/matchCorners12/12● 5.75 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards12/121.92 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCremoneseRoma
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headCremonese — Roma
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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