PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

LWWDL
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNapoliAtalanta
Shots11 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.75 corners/match▲CornersNapoli · Atalanta5.83 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricNapoliAtalantaBaseline
Corners5.75 corners/match5.83 corners/match4.23 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match14.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 1 · 6 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.17 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/1214.5 shots/match
11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲10.5 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/124 shots/match
2.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/124.08 shots/match
57.7%Possessionseason · 12/1257%
5.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.83 corners/match
3.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/123.58 corners/match
1.42 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 12/121.67 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1217%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli77.5
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli84.2
Atalanta65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli76.7
Atalanta60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli47.5
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli20
Atalanta16.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli82.5
Atalanta92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli71.2
Atalanta58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
50.2%Possession5/560.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.2 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match
56.3%Possession10/1056.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.17 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots12/1214.5 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124 shots/match
57.7%Possession12/1257%
5.75 corners/matchCorners12/125.83 corners/match
1.42 cards/matchCards12/121.67 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.17 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots6/611.8 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63.17 shots/match
55.5%Possession6/654.7%
5.83 corners/matchCorners6/64 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls6/610.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.3 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Nov 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNapoliAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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