UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 25 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeStadio Diego Armando MaradonaFull-time recap

Napoli

LWLD

2–0Full-time recap

Qarabağ

LWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Napoli	Qarabağ
Shots	17 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	3.45 xG/match▲	0.49 xG/match
Possession	55%	45%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	18 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Napoli: 18 shots, 9 on target, 3.53 xG. Qarabağ: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 3.53 xG · Qarabağ 0.51 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Qarabağ's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Napoli have a visible home split

weak

Napoli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.7 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Qarabağ's recent record differs from the season

weak

Qarabağ's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.09 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	2.09 goals/match	1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Qarabağ in 5 · 3 too close

1.2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 5/11▲2.09 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 5/11▲1.27 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 5/51.21 xG/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 5/52.11 xG/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 5/710 shots/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 5/715.6 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 5/7▲3.86 shots/match

5.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 5/7▲4.86 shots/match

47.4%Possessionseason · 5/745.3%

5.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 5/72.86 corners/match

4.4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 5/76.14 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 5/78.29 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 5/1136%

60%Scoring frequencyseason · 5/11▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli34.5

Qarabağ20.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli27.7

Qarabağ39.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 76%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli38.3

Qarabağ43.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 76%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli32.1

Qarabağ22.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli54.8

Qarabağ10.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 32%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli76.2

Qarabağ8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli45.5

Qarabağ15.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.21 xG/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match

47.4%Possession5/544%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/57.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

5 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/10▲2 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.21 xG/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/710 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/7▲3.86 shots/match

47.4%Possession5/745.3%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/72.86 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/78.29 fouls/match

Window

Season

5 / 11 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/11▲2.09 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/11▲1.27 goals/match

1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.21 xG/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/710 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/7▲3.86 shots/match

47.4%Possession5/745.3%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/72.86 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/78.29 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 6 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/6▲1.83 goals/match

0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/61.33 goals/match

2.06 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.84 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots3/410.3 shots/match

4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/44 shots/match

56.7%Possession3/447%

6 corners/matchCorners3/43.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls3/46.25 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120.1 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples5 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 26 Nov 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Napoli have a visible home split

Qarabağ's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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