PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Tue, 28 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeStadio Via del MareFull-time recap

Lecce

LDWDL
0–1Full-time recap

Napoli

WLWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceNapoli
Shots7 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession41%59%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lecce, Napoli. A second useful context is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lecce, Napoli.

3.19 days▲Rest daysLecce · Napoli3.06 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLecceNapoliBaseline
Rest days3.19 days3.06 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.22 corners/match▲CornersLecce · Napoli6.22 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLecceNapoliBaseline
Corners5.22 corners/match6.22 corners/match4.12 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 9 · 5 too close

0.78 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.78 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.67 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲15.4 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲10.8 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲5.33 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲2.56 shots/match
44.4%Possessionseason · 9/960.3%
5.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/96.22 corners/match
5.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/9▲3.11 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/9▲1.11 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/913.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/933%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/9▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce32.5
Napoli97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce19.2
Napoli89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce29.2
Napoli75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce17.5
Napoli67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce38.8
Napoli22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce67.5
Napoli87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce32.5
Napoli76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/560.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.78 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.67 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.4 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.33 shots/match
44.4%Possession9/960.3%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/96.22 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/91.11 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/913.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.78 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.67 shots/matchShots9/9▲15.4 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.33 shots/match
44.4%Possession9/960.3%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/96.22 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/91.11 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/913.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.4 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/560%
4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.06 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 28 Oct 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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