PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Tue, 28 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeGewiss StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaAC Milan
Shots17 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession56%44%
Corners9 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta.

3.04 days▲Rest daysAtalanta · AC Milan4.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtalantaAC MilanBaseline
Rest days3.04 days4.04 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

AC Milan have a visible away split

weak

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 4 · 7 too close

1.44 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.56 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/90.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/913.8 shots/match
10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲9.67 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/94.44 shots/match
3.78 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲2.78 shots/match
55.7%Possessionseason · 9/952.4%
6.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/94.11 corners/match
3.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/94.22 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 9/91.67 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.67 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲44%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/989%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta67.5
AC Milan62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta80.8
AC Milan72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta68.3
AC Milan86.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta87.5
AC Milan72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta11.2
AC Milan8.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
AC Milan47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta66.2
AC Milan46.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/550.8%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 9 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.56 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/90.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots9/913.8 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.44 shots/match
55.7%Possession9/952.4%
6.56 corners/matchCorners9/94.11 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls9/99.67 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 9 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.56 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/90.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots9/913.8 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.44 shots/match
55.7%Possession9/952.4%
6.56 corners/matchCorners9/94.11 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls9/99.67 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/4▲1.5 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/4▲0.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.8 shots/match▲Shots5/411.5 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/44.25 shots/match
57.6%Possession5/452%
8.4 corners/matchCorners5/43.25 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/41.25 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/47.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.04 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 28 Oct 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match