PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta 1–1 Milan · Serie A

1–1Historical match

Milan

WWDWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atalanta and Milan drew 1–1.

Shots
176
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
1.340.36
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta and AC Milan drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – AC Milan): shots 17–6, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 1.34–0.36, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta.

3.04 days ▲Rest daysAtalanta · AC Milan4.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtalantaAC MilanBaseline
Rest days3.04 days4.04 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

AC Milan have a visible away split

weak

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots6 shotsAtalanta 17 shots, Milan 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotAtalanta 3 shots, Milan 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.34 xG0.36 xGAtalanta 1.34 xG, Milan 0.36 xG
  • Possession56%44%Atalanta 56%, Milan 44%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersAtalanta 9 corners, Milan 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls8 foulsAtalanta 9 fouls, Milan 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsAtalanta 1 card, Milan 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Samuele Ricci · AC Milan · 4′ · 0.01 xG · goalDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Bernasconi · Atalanta · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.05 xG · goalRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 85′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIsak Hien · Atalanta · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHonest Ahanor · Atalanta · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 21′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSantiago Giménez · AC Milan · 47′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Bernasconi · Atalanta · 57′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHonest Ahanor · Atalanta · 27′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedHonest Ahanor · Atalanta · 23′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 68′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Atalanta · 88′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedIsak Hien · Atalanta · 6′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 17 shots, 3 on target, 1.32 xG. AC Milan: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 35′Samuele Ricci · AC Milan · 4′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.32 xG · AC Milan 0.41 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Atalanta
1Draws
1Milan
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Atalanta — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A1–1
Atalanta — Milan · Serie A3–2
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta9 matchesMilan9 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.56 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/90.78 goals/match
1.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.39 xG/match
15.7 shots/match ▲Shots9/913.8 shots/match
4.78 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/94.44 shots/match
55.7% ●Possession9/952.4%
6.56 corners/match ●Corners9/94.11 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls9/99.67 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 28 Oct 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headAtalanta — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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