PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

Pisa

LLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAC MilanPisa
Shots20 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Pisa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AC Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AC Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsAC Milan · Pisa9.13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanPisaBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match9.13 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against8.75 shots/match16.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Pisa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Pisa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.63 goals/match1.07 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AC Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.5%▲PossessionAC Milan · Pisa39%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanPisaBaseline
Possession53.5%39%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Pisa in 0 · 4 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.63 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/89.13 shots/match
8.75 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/816.9 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/82 shots/match
2.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.88 shots/match
53.5%Possessionseason · 8/839%
4.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/83.38 corners/match
3.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/86.25 corners/match
1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/81.75 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/813.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/838%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan62.5
Pisa2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan79.2
Pisa9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan87.5
Pisa9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan87.5
Pisa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan5
Pisa42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan47.5
Pisa27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan50
Pisa22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots5/58.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.8 shots/match
54%Possession5/539.2%
2.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots8/89.13 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82 shots/match
53.5%Possession8/839%
4.13 corners/matchCorners8/83.38 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/813.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots8/89.13 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82 shots/match
53.5%Possession8/839%
4.13 corners/matchCorners8/83.38 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards8/81.75 cards/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/813.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/41.25 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/42.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/49 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/42.5 shots/match
52.8%Possession5/432.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/42.75 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/41.75 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/415.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.24 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAC MilanPisa
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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