Serie A · 2025Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeBluenergy Stadium - Stadio FriuliFull-time recap

Udinese

WLLDD

3–2Full-time recap

Lecce

LLDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Udinese	Lecce
Shots	8 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	44%	56%
Corners	4 corners/match	9 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.88 goals/match	1.13 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Udinese favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 2 · 6 too close

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/80.88 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.63 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/810 shots/match

11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/811.8 shots/match

3.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/82.75 shots/match

3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/84.38 shots/match

49%Possessionseason · 8/844.9%

4.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.5 corners/match

5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/85.5 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 8/8▲2 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲38%

88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/863%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Udinese47.5

Lecce37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Udinese54.2

Lecce25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Udinese40

Lecce30.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Udinese62.5

Lecce27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Udinese60

Lecce45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Udinese52.5

Lecce72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Udinese48.8

Lecce35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match

3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

49.6%Possession5/546%

4.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match

14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.3 shots/match▲Shots8/810 shots/match

3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.75 shots/match

49%Possession8/844.9%

4.25 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls8/812.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.63 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.3 shots/match▲Shots8/810 shots/match

3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.75 shots/match

49%Possession8/844.9%

4.25 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls8/812.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match

1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41.75 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.8 shots/match▲Shots4/49.75 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.25 shots/match

51.8%Possession4/444.3%

4.25 corners/matchCorners4/46.75 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/41.75 cards/match

11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/412 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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