PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

Lazio

LLWDD
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLazioJuventus
Shots13 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.06 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Juventus show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsLazio · Juventus15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLazioJuventusBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match15.6 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against14.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Lazio have a visible home split

weak

Lazio's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Juventus in 6 · 4 too close

1.38 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲15.6 shots/match
14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲12.5 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲5 shots/match
5.38 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲3.25 shots/match
47.6%Possessionseason · 8/858.3%
3 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/85.5 corners/match
4.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲4.25 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 8/82 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/812.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/838%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲63%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio42.5
Juventus82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio45
Juventus74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio33.3
Juventus58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio27.5
Juventus77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio26.2
Juventus43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio12.5
Juventus72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio21.9
Juventus68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
43%Possession5/561%
1.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲15.6 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5 shots/match
47.6%Possession8/858.3%
3 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls8/812.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
1.38 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots8/8▲15.6 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲5 shots/match
47.6%Possession8/858.3%
3 corners/matchCorners8/85.5 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards8/82 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls8/812.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.5 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/matchShots4/413 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/43.75 shots/match
52%Possession4/460.8%
4 corners/matchCorners4/43.25 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls4/414.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.39 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Oct 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLazioJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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