PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Santa Fe vs Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.541.53
Expected goals
1.171.06
Shots
12.812.6
Possession
46.9%49.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atlético Bucaramanga's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atlético Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Bucaramanga's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Santa Fe favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Bucaramanga in 3 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Santa Fe35 matchesAtlético Bucaramanga30 matches
1.54 goals/matchGoals scored35/301.53 goals/match
1.03 goals/matchGoals allowed35/301 goal/match
1.17 xG/match ▲Expected goals32/221.06 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots35/2912.6 shots/match
4.91 shots/match ▲Shots on target35/294.14 shots/match
46.9%Possession35/29● 49.6%
4.8 corners/match ●Corners35/293.83 corners/match
3.9 cards/matchCards10/54.6 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls35/2911.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Independiente Santa Fe
0Draws
0Atlético Bucaramanga
Atlético Bucaramanga — Independiente Santa Fe · Primera A1–2

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness22 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 27 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente Santa FeAtlético Bucaramanga
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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