PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

AFC Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
32.57
Expected goals
2.622.53
Shots
24.719.4
Possession
64.4%59%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 0 to AFC Ajax, 2 drawn, 3 to AZ Alkmaar. From this fixture's own record: each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

8 corners/matchCornersAFC Ajax · AZ Alkmaar● 8.57 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxAZ AlkmaarBaseline
Corners8 corners/match8.57 corners/match4.71 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

24.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · AZ Alkmaar19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxAZ AlkmaarBaseline
Shots24.7 shots/match19.4 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against9.57 shots/match8.29 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · AZ Alkmaar in 5 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax7 matchesAZ Alkmaar7 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/72.57 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.86 goals/match
2.62 xG/matchExpected goals7/72.53 xG/match
24.7 shots/match ▲Shots7/719.4 shots/match
8.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/77.57 shots/match
64.4% ●Possession7/759%
8 corners/matchCorners7/7● 8.57 corners/match
8.71 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0AFC Ajax
2Draws
3AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–1
AZ Alkmaar — AFC Ajax · KNVB Beker6–0
AFC Ajax — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie0–2
AFC Ajax — AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie2–2
AZ Alkmaar — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness42 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxAZ Alkmaar
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — AZ Alkmaar
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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